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What if Everyone Did That? Options
Flat Tire
Posted: Saturday, August 23, 2008 7:51:41 PM

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Joined: 12/13/2007
Posts: 103
Location: Bellingham
New Vision wrote:
I believe the city has unintentionally found itself in the middle of a pyramid scheme in which the city’s tax revenues are based on a certain level of continuing and constant growth.


Shocked


There's one I've never heard before. Can we persuade you to expand on that idea a little?


New Vision
Posted: Saturday, August 23, 2008 8:29:49 PM

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Sure, I’ll be happy to expand on this concept; but before I do, you might want to take a look at Grunwald’s article, Is Florida the Sunset State? (click here). Grunwald observed the “human pyramid” phenomenon in Florida, and I simply related it to our area.

As you know, pyramid schemes require new blood to perpetuate them and are not intrinsically sustainable. Once there is no more new blood, the scheme collapses under its own weight.

It is obvious that governments and businesses operate differently; however, an often overlooked key distinction is the way they account for revenues and expenses. Most businesses use an accrual system whereby revenues are matched with corresponding expenses. For example, if you manufacture yachts and a customer pays you a $1,000,000 deposit on a new yacht, would you recognize $1,000,000 as revenue and buy yourself a second home on the islands? Not likely. If you want to stay in business, you’ll deposit the cash but record an offsetting liability with the understanding that revenue won’t be recognized until you deliver the yacht and receive the balance your customer owes. In short, accrual accounting matches revenues and expenses in the same period for financial reporting.

Governments don’t generally follow these principles. For example, if a city experiences rapid growth, its tax revenues are likely to rise in the current year; however, the costs associated with accommodating that growth (e.g., building new roads and schools, acquiring new fire protection equipment, and developing new parks) are not likely to be funded until sometime in the future. Even though the city has incurred a liability to expand its infrastructure in order to maintain its adopted levels of service, it does not record the liability in the current period. Instead, it only records the tax revenues and shows a surplus for the year. Of course, the bills will come due, and the surplus is only temporary. When growth slows or stops completely, tax revenues no longer increase, but the costs of expanding the infrastructure must eventually be paid (unless the city decides to lower its level of service). When that happens, the city will experience a deficiency because it did not establish adequate reserves to fund these costs.

When growth slows or stops, the pyramid scheme collapses. It's comparable to any bubble, most of which are subsidy-driven, and is similar to what we're currently experiencing in the housing bubble-du-jour.

That’s all for now. Time to run out for the evening. Thanks for asking. Please let me know if you have any questions.
DJGray
Posted: Sunday, August 24, 2008 2:10:50 PM

Rank: Administration
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Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 260
Location: Bellingham, WA
Another great example of a small expenditure that adds to the total cost:

From yesterday's Bellingham Herald

==================================

Bus designs and art a waste of WTA money

At a small meeting several months ago I cited, with apologies to the WTA administrator present, the children's' drawings and other art on WTA buses as an example of something that should be considered in terms of cost and benefit to bus riders and the general public. This seemed reasonable; in a home or business most people consider the cost and benefit of a purchase.

After our little meeting, however, a lady approached the WTA administrator to state that, unlike myself, she liked the children's art. He responded by noting that the cost was "only: $3,000 per bus.

The lady, of course, missed the point; I like children's art - I enjoyed teaching art in public schools for 10 years, from kindergarten through grade 12. I was suggesting that adding decoration to the outside of a bus is not a requirement and cost should be considered.

Is a $3000 cost increase really of little consequence? Is it time to change this attitude in light of the fact that WTA fare increases and higher taxes are being considered?
I have ridden the bus and would submit that, for many riders, keeping fares low for those inside is more important than decorating the outside.

Niel Pfundt
Bellingham


Mark Twain wrote:

A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • Poindexter Prometheus Parkenfarker
    Posted: Tuesday, August 26, 2008 11:40:49 AM

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    Location: Zeta Reticuli
    All this pounding and sculpting...(didn't know that was what it was called...Snicker... )

    Wouldn't it just be simpler to cut unneeded programs and useless projects rather than trying to stick it to the newcomers, or suggesting that everyone donate more than we already do?

    Gotta admit though, the Pyramid Scheme description of government is pretty good.
    I'm not that smart, but wasn't it Wendel Wilke that first suggested Social Security was a Pyramid Scheme and likened it to Al Capone's method of business, and would ultimately be doomed to failure if our population decreased?

    By the way, I would like to see Bellingham go bust.
    It will make it easier for Ferndale to Assimilate it...Nyehehehee...

    You better laugh at yourself,
    Everyone else is.

    www.parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com
    New Vision
    Posted: Tuesday, August 26, 2008 8:42:45 PM

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    3P wrote:
    Wouldn't it just be simpler to cut unneeded programs and useless projects rather than trying to stick it to the newcomers, or suggesting that everyone donate more than we already do?

    I can't say I agree with your premise - that somehow raising impact fees so that growth pays for itself is sticking it to the newcomers. Seems to me if we don't, then newcomers are sticking it to taxpayers who already live here.

    Also, I'm not sure it's a matter of what's more "simple". It's more a matter of what's more fair.


    3P wrote:
    Gotta admit though, the Pyramid Scheme description of government is pretty good.

    Thanks, glad you liked it!
    CarlOlsen
    Posted: Saturday, August 30, 2008 11:44:19 AM

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    Joined: 8/10/2008
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    Location: Bellingham
    Hello. My name is Carl Olsen and I am the person Mr. Gray referred to as having done some work trying to understand the 2006 CAFR for the City of Bellingham. I moved here in the Summer of 2005 and in April of 2008 bought a copy of the 2006 CAFR (at that time the most current available document) and the 2008 Adopted Budget (dated December 31, 2007). I am a person without a college degree but I have some training in finances and accounting and I have an interest in financial analysis.

    The City's profit for the year 2006 was $27,769,614. This number appears on page 4-3 of the CAFR. The document refers to the number as "Change in Net Assets" but it is synonymous (in my humble opinion) with "profit" as it is the difference between revenues and expenses.

    This profit of $27,000,000 is 43.4% on taxes collected of $64,049,322. This number is also on page 4-3 but you have to hunt for it as it is not totaled up for the reader. (To my knowledge, Microsoft in its heydays did not book profits that high).

    Accumulated profits from 2002 to 2006 total $131,997,949. This information is on page 6-4 of the CAFR. Again, you have to hunt for it because it is not totaled for you. In fact, the information provided totals to $193,393,523 but I believe that number is wrong and should be lowered by more than $60,000,000 to my number of $131,000,000.

    The City has more than $100,000,000 in cash, cash equivalents and investments. On page 4-2 of the CAFR they report $106,803,784 and on page 4-28 they report $131,142,982.

    The City reports, on page 4-2, reserves of $130,936,531 of which $81,202,394 are unrestricted.

    With profits, cash and unrestricted reserves at these levels, the residents of the City of Bellingham should be asking the question, "Are these numbers ON plan, AHEAD of plan or BEHIND plan?"

    The 2008 Adopted Budget shows (on page 7) the depletion of the General fund reserves over time through to the year 2013 but on page 49 they show NO reduction in the 2008 planned expenditures.

    I have not purchased the 2007 CAFR as yet but the documents are available on-line. Performance for the year seems to be very strong. Profits have increased to $39,633,997. Profit margins increased to 57.92% on tax revenues that rose to $68,433,158. Cash and investments have risen. Page 4-2 reports $119,544,295 and page 4-30 reports $146,834,702. Unrestricted reserves (page 4-2) declined to $78,300,094 from $81,202,394.

    Not a bad year at all. Razz So how does the City think we're doing? Are we ON plan, AHEAD of plan or BEHIND plan? Hammer time

    Interested persons can get a copy of my analysis by contacting me through this web-site. Just post a way for me to get in touch with you.

    Sincerely,

    Carl Olsen



    Stan Snapp
    Posted: Sunday, August 31, 2008 9:23:36 PM

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    Hello CARL,

    It's my understanding that our local economy lags behind broader area trends by a year or more so this slow down was anticipated. I think the numbers that you call "profit" are what our Finance Office calls "reserves". Council has been told that we need to maintain a certain level of reserves to keep our, now very good, bond rating. Those reserves not only bring in needed revenue but, more importantly, they show that we are financially healthy which keeps our bond rating high which in turn keeps our cost of funds low which saves our taxpayers money. P. S. E is an example of a company with a poor bond rating cripling their ability to sell bonds and I'm guessing that may have something to do with their being up for sale.

    Damon; the Art and Children's museum you used as an example of "fat" is not a COB project. It is being funded by the Public Facilities District which is funded by a small portion of the Sales taxes as authorized by the Legislature. Points well taken on bus art crosswalk fancyness. On your statement that public employees are protected and can't be laid off. I beg to differ. When Ken Hertz took office, I was a fire fighter at he time and he presented a budget that cut 27 city positions and the Council approved 26 of them. People went out the door including, firefighters. Attrition brought our fire personnel back but the positions remained cut; gone. When we hire a firefighter we are not only taking on a significant wage and benefit package but we spend several hundred dollars on uniforms and protective and safety gear and then there's the extensive training that we do to keep our employees safe from the harm they face every day at work. City employees represent a huge investment of our resources and they are over 80% of our budget. Any "fat" we cut has to be from the less than 20% that remains. Of that we have plenty of fixed utility and assest costs that can't be considered "fat".

    I recently received a letter from a citizen complaining that we are not properly maintaining our Bayview Cemetary. Since it's a monument laden cemetary, maintenance is a major challenge. We were recently told that we can no longer utilize work release, community service folks so our slim Parks Maintenance workers will have to shoulder that load and it will be at the expense of something else that we need. Do we stop mowing lawns in our parks or doing trail maintenance. My point is that any significant cut in our budget, at least on the General Fund side will mean letting people go and the service they provided will not be maintained. Having worked at COB for thirty years I'm more than a little familiar with the workload our employees carry.

    For example at Fire I was a Division Chief in charge of Training. I also was in charge of facilities and grounds, the department's records management system, the computer system, building and remodeling stations and we built three new stations on my watch and remodeled two others. All of these programs carried with them, major budget responsibilities. Additionally, I shared emergency administrative duties one week in four which meant being on call 24/7 for that week. And, all administrative officers reported to all major emergencies if we were in town.

    This is my story but I'm sure you could hear a similar tale from Leslie Bryson, Planning and Development Manager for Parks and Recreation or countless other dedicated COB employees. I think it's safe to say that few citizens appreciate the dedication we have in City Government. One good way to gain insight is to volunteer on a COB advisory board, the Mayor's office has Applications or they are on line and there are usually vacancies on several boards. Damon was recently appointed to the Greenways Advisory Committee and I hope he'll report on his experiences on Eye on Whatcom.

    Carl: I can be reached at Stansnapp@comcast.net

    mrneighbor
    Posted: Monday, September 01, 2008 10:22:44 AM

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    Councilman Snapp,

    You missed the big picture when you dismissed concerns about financing the Children's Museum by stating it is "not a COB project". The Children's Museum was birthed by the City as it funded the lease for the Children's Museum at the prior location, COB lead the effort to form a Bellingham Whatcom Public Facilities District (BWPFD) to build the new Children's Museum, COB passed the ordinance redirecting sales tax revenue to pay off bonds used to build the new Children's Museum, and COB conveyed the Mt Baker Theatre to the BWPFD to meet the State mandated match so sales tax dollars could be redirected to the BWPFD. The Children's Museum is certainly a child of the City, now being raised under the hand of the City's designated caregiver, the BWPFD.

    From the BWPFD website ( http://www.bwpfd.org/index.php?section=22 ):
    "The BWPFD receives, for 25 years, a rebate of 0.033% of sales tax collected by Bellingham and Whatcom County. This means for every $1,000 in state sales tax collected in Bellingham and Whatcom County, 33 cents is returned to our community through the BWPFD. The BWPFD has been receiving this tax rebate since September 2002. The BWPFD can sell bonds to generate capital for specific projects. As sales tax rebates continue to come in, they will be used to pay off the bonds. A match of thirty-three percent (33%) of the sales tax revenue collected must be met by other public or private sources. The City of Bellingham has already met this match by transferring to the BWPFD the City's ownership interest in the Mount Baker Theatre and by designating $2 million in capital funds towards a Streetscape project within the Regional Center."

    BWPFD, backed by the COB bond rating, sold bonds to build the Children's Museum. City taxpayers, through COB, are the ultimate security for the bonds. If sales tax revenues dry up, the bonds must be paid before any other City expense.

    The dilemma is two-fold:

    1. Sales tax revenue normally available for basic services were redirected into cultural and recreational activities targeted toward children. This puts funding for basic services at risk. If the sales tax revenue was diverted from the State budget, it deepens the $2 billion hole in the current State budget (tell that to the foster care kids going to Court to get proper DSHS service). If the tax revenue was diverted from the City budget, how does the City fund our basic police and fire services when a $2 million shortfall (and growing) is projected? I believe COB currently pays nearly $1.5 million/year to operate the Whatcom Museum (the other museum) plus $1 million to operate the Mt Baker Theatre. Taxpayers expect good basic services yet Council budget decisions send more funds to non-basic services. The problem becomes even larger when the City tackles the +$30 million hole in its Police and Fire Pension funds.

    2. The City (you, me, all taxpayers) guarantee the bond payments even if the tax revenues decrease. City tax revenue is rapidly decreasing due to construction stopping, consumers purchasing less and retailers relocating to Ferndale. The announced shortfall of $2 million in the City general fund may easily grow to $5 million or more. Taxpayers will be strapped by the debt burden for the Children's Museum while we struggle to fund police, fire and other basic services.

    Seems the Neighborly thing to do would be for the COB to own up to its parental responsibilities for birthing the Children's Museum. Next, the Council should put more emphasis on the basic services needed to make Bellingham safe rather than taking on more financial burdens in this uncertain economy. Parental wisdom is required here.


    It's a beautiful day in the Neighborhood,
    Mr. Neighbor
    Poindexter Prometheus Parkenfarker
    Posted: Monday, September 01, 2008 11:56:08 AM

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    Part of Building both Safeco Park and Quest field was the creation of public facilities districts across the state of Washington. I'm not sure of the exact RCW's but I think that it is chapter 35 or 36. (I know that there are some link geeks who can find the exact chapters plus supporting documents as to the intent of these districts.)

    The original intent of these districts was for youth athletics across the state.
    This was for renovating existing sports facilities, stadiums and sports fields and for the construction of new athletics facilites.
    In addition to that was for facilities to support these such as parking facilities and convention areas.

    The intent of these public Facilities districts was to support our major pro teams and college teams by providing more opportunity for young athletes to participate in athletics, ultimately providing more home-grown athletes for our colleges and major pro teams.

    It now seems as if this intent has been lost to several of the PFD's and especially in Bellingham, where there is a scheduling challenge for practices for many youth teams, especially for girls sports has always been tight.

    These moneys for these districts was not intended for museums and pet projects that take away from our young athletes. How many kids visit the children's museum vs. how many kids are invloved in sports in our county with a real challenge of finding adequate locations and room to schedule teams for practice?

    In this day and age of many youth becoming overweight and unhealthy, perhaps we ought to use the money for what the State legislature originally intended it to be used?

    You better laugh at yourself,
    Everyone else is.

    www.parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com
    New Vision
    Posted: Monday, September 01, 2008 7:01:12 PM

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    3P, I often wonder where you get your information. Regardless, PFDs include sports, entertainment, convention, conference or special events facilities. In other words, they were never limited to youth athletics as you claim.

    I won’t bother to provide a reference to the RCWs, since you apparently know some link geeks who can provide that info for you or you can google PFDs and get the info yourself.
    CarlOlsen
    Posted: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 12:20:14 AM

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    Hello Councilman Snapp,

    Your single paragraph response to my post contained several points so I'll summarize them first and then respond:

    1. "...so this slow down was anticipated."
    2. "I think the numbers that you call "profit" are what our Finance Office calls "reserves"."
    3. "Council has been told that we need to maintain a certain level of reserves to keep our, now very good, bond rating."
    4.A "Those reserves not only bring in needed revenue but, ...
    4.B more importantly, they show that we are financially healthy which keeps our bond rating high which in turn keeps our cost of funds low which saves our taxpayers money.

    1. I believe your quote was in response to my comment, "The 2008 Adopted Budget shows (on page 7) the depletion of the General fund reserves over time through to the year 2013 but on page 49 they show NO reduction in the 2008 planned expenditures." If I am wrong I trust you will correct me. But my point is not just that the reserves are being depleted but that there is NO apparent reduction in spending planned. Budgeted spending for 2008 shows an increase. So, I don't understand your point. If hard times are apparently on the horizon, what expenses are being cut?

    2. The numbers I call profit are indeed what the City Finance Office calls reserves. As I explained in my post, the Finance Office describes profits as a "Change in Net Assets" in the current year. Then, over time, as these profits accumulate they become "reserves." I get confused when multiple names and descriptions are given to the same thing...so I prefer to call profits exactly what they are. In a single year when taxes exceed expenses, that is a profit. When you have a series of years were taxes exceed expenses you have accumulated profits. My post was pretty clear. For 2006 the City of Bellingham's taxes collected exceeded all other costs, expenses, revenues and financing for a profit of over $27,000,000. From 2002 to 2006 accumulated profits for the City exceeded $130,000,000. Cash, equivalents and investments exceed $130,000,000 and reserves exceed $130,000,000 and unrestricted reserves exceed $80,000,000.

    3. What "certain" levels of reserve has the council been told to maintain? Is it different from the "Goal" levels spelled out on page 38 of the 2008 Adopted Budget? From my calculations it looks like the City currently has more than 3.5 times the reserves it has been "goaled" for. That amounts to more than $50,000,000 more than goaled for. I could be wrong here but there is no schedule in the CAFR that spells out how the "goaled" amounts compare to actual reserves.

    Here is how I got to my number. On page 38 of the 2008 Adopted Budget there is a chart that covers 21 of the City's 66 funds. This implies to me that the other 45 funds DO NOT have specific reserve goals. Of the 21 funds mentioned, 15 funds have goals stated as percentages of expenditures. The breakdown is as follows; one fund is 50% of expenditures, one fund is 15% of expenditures, one fund (the General Fund) is 12% of expenditures, one fund is 8% of expenditures and eleven funds are 5% of expenditures. The other six funds have unique goals. The breakdown is as follows; one fund is 11% of green fees, one fund is 75% of insurance claims, one fund is 5% of medical insurance paymants and three funds are specific amounts-$100,000 each.

    So let's throw all that information out the window and instead let's cover the entire city operations for an entire year. (Before I do that I want to express my disagreement with using "expenditures" rather than "expenses" for the foundation of the reserve calculation. Expenditures include both capital outlays and financing maneuvers. I humbley submit that these items should NOT be covered in reserve calculations and that only "expenses" should be planned for in the reserves spelled out on page 38. More on that at another time and place).

    In 2006 the City had costs and expenses that totaled $121,352,107 and net changes in capital investments of $33,032,913 for a total of $154,385,020. Of the five different reserve goals of 50%, 15%, 12%, 8% and %5 I'm going to use 15%. Fifteen percent of $154,385,020 is $23,157,750. The City has over $130,000,000 in reserves and over $80,000,000 in unrestricted reserves. That is more than 3.5 times higher than the "goaled" amount I just calculated at $23,000,000.

    4.A I'm not so sure our reserves are really earning much for the City when you look at the City's debt and cost of debt. The City owes more than $73,000,000 in debt. I don't see in the CAFR any reference to the cost of that debt. I'm sure I'm just not seeing it.
    4.B The City is currently rated "A1" by Moody's. My assumption is that the city set the "goaled" reserve limits (which I layed out above) to achieve the A1 rating. From my calculations our actual reserves are 3.5 times (that's 350%) higher than called for in the goals. (Actually, it is much, much, much higher than that because I used a straight 15% rather than the amounts spelled out for the 21 funds mentioned in the chart at page 38).

    My reason for wanting to concentrate on City revenues and profits are this. "Once government has my money, the game is over." Look at the confusing conversations on this page/topic alone...projects are referenced, funding sources are referenced, rebates, taxes and statutes are referenced and it all becomes a blur. Everybody has a point of view. Everybody has their own set of facts.

    While it is virtually impossible to have an impact on how the government spends your money once they have it you can, however, change the amount your government takes from you by simply changing your elected officials. And that is specifically why the public should focus on the revenues and profits the government takes from its citizens.

    Sincerely,

    Carl Olsen

    Poindexter Prometheus Parkenfarker
    Posted: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 8:12:01 AM

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    Like your Avatar New Vision,

    I didn't say 'limited to', but the original intent was for youth Athletics. Even the local proponents of this PFD reluctantly admitted that in public.
    There are a lot of parents that I talk to who agree with me that they have more of a need for youth athletic fields than for Plan by Bellingham for Bellingham. The museums and arts and performing arts centers we have now are more than adequate. Our local sports facilities are not even close to accomodating those who need them.

    Remember when we voted down the expenditure for Safeco and Quest Fields?
    The sales pitch by Locke was that Public Facilities districts would be created to develop more more oppourtunity and athletic facilities for our homegrown athletes to enhance our local college and sports teams.

    When Yvonne Bianchi and Patricia Decker were asked about the original intent of the PFD's at the Northwest Business Club, they admitted that was the original intent, but they 'felt' that they didn't need to follow that intent as their plans downtown were more important.

    When asked about the attendance of usage of the current art museum and children's museum vs the attendance of kids at local sports facilities and fields and the tight scheduling for those kids in using fields for practice. (you need to practice if you want to get good) they claimed that wasn't relevant as Bellingham needs an arts district.

    I wonder how we here in ALL of whatcom county can justify subsidizing the pleasure of an elite few, when it should be used for our future generations. I think more questions about this WBPFD need to be asked.
    What's wrong with using the money and PFD as it was originally intended?

    You better laugh at yourself,
    Everyone else is.

    www.parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com
    New Vision
    Posted: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 8:42:37 AM

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    Thanks 3P. That's the kind of argument I can support. Clapping
    Poindexter Prometheus Parkenfarker
    Posted: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 8:49:47 AM

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    Location: Zeta Reticuli
    dammit!Frustration Frustration Frustration
    I forgot to use my fog machine.Hammer time Hammer time Hammer time

    I tried to take my thoughts on this over to another thread, as I diverged away from Stannnn and Carl's conversation.

    Hey admin, how do I do that? I can cut and paste mine, but if I do the same with New Visions, am I stealing his intellectual property? can you move us or copy us to the PFD thread thingie, where I duplicated my first thoughts on PFD's?


    You better laugh at yourself,
    Everyone else is.

    www.parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com
    Administrator
    Posted: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 6:43:08 PM

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    Joined: 12/12/2007
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    Unfortunately, "split-topic" functionality isn't available in this version of the forum. It is scheduled for the next release.

    Just continue your discussion in the other thread, so that this discussion can continue unimpeded.

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